How to Calculate Jackpot EV in GGPoker All-In or Fold
The AoF jackpot is not a lottery you ignore — it is a known prize with a known probability, so it has a dollar value every time you play a suited hand. Here is how to calculate it.
Key takeaways
- Jackpot EV = SF boards × C(47,2)/C(50,5) × P(showdown) × P(best SF) × jackpot.
- Pushing 54s from the CO into a $1,000 jackpot is worth about $0.74 per push.
- Calling is worth more per hand than pushing (you always see the board), but calling loses the fold equity.
- Offsuit hands and pairs have zero jackpot EV; A6s–A9s and most other suited hands do too.
What the jackpot pays for
The AoF jackpot pays when you make a straight flush using both of your hole cards. That restricts it to suited hands whose two cards can sit inside the same five-card straight — connectors, gappers and a few ace and king combinations.
The formula, piece by piece
- SF boards — how many different straight flushes use both of your cards. 54s has four (A-5, 2-6, 3-7, 4-8); 43s has three; A5s only one (the wheel).
- Board probability — for one specific straight flush you need the three missing cards on a five-card board: C(47,2)/C(50,5) = 1,081 / 2,118,760 ≈ 0.0510%.
- P(showdown) — you only see a full board when the hand goes to showdown. When you push from the CO, that happens about 44% of the time at 8BB. When you call, it is 100%.
- P(best SF) ≈ 0.82 — an estimate for how often your straight flush is the one that qualifies.
- Jackpot — the value shown at your table.
Worked example: 54s pushed from the CO into a $1,000 jackpot: 4 × 0.000510 × 0.442 × 0.82 × $1,000 ≈ $0.74 per push.
Jackpot EV per hand group
| Hand group | SF boards | Push @ $1,000 JP | Call @ $1,000 JP | Push @ $5,000 JP | Call @ $5,000 JP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectors 54s, 65s, 76s, 87s, 98s, T9s, JTs | 4 | $0.74 | $1.67 | $3.69 | $8.37 |
| One-gappers 43s, 53s, 64s, 75s, 86s, 97s, T8s, J9s, QTs, QJs | 3 | $0.55 | $1.26 | $2.77 | $6.28 |
| Two-gappers & KQs/KJs/KTs 32s, 42s, 52s, 63s, 74s, 85s, 96s, T7s, J8s, Q9s, KTs–KQs | 2 | $0.37 | $0.84 | $1.85 | $4.18 |
| Wheel / royal aces & three-gappers A2s–A5s, ATs–AKs, K9s, Q8s, J7s, T6s, 95s, 84s, 73s, 62s | 1 | $0.18 | $0.42 | $0.92 | $2.09 |
"Push" assumes a ~44% showdown rate, "Call" assumes 100%. Every other hand — all offsuit hands, all pairs, A6s–A9s, K8s and below — has zero jackpot EV.
Turning dollars into big blinds
Chip EV is measured in big blinds, the jackpot in dollars, so convert before comparing. At $1/$2 one big blind is $2. 54s from the CO loses 0.13 BB in chip EV — about $0.26. The jackpot covers that once it reaches about $352. At $0.25/$0.50 the same breakeven is four times lower, because one big blind is four times smaller.
Common mistakes
Treating every suited hand as a jackpot hand
A9s or K7s cannot make a straight flush with both cards, so they get no jackpot value at all.
Ignoring showdown frequency
Most of the time a push simply wins the blinds. The jackpot only counts in the pushes that are called, which is why push values are less than half the call values.
Calling for the jackpot
Calls see every board, but they have no fold equity, so a marginal call usually loses far more chips than a marginal push. It takes a much bigger jackpot to justify it.
Which hands actually flip from fold to push, and at what jackpot size, is covered in jackpot strategy.
See jackpot EV for every hand, live
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